Equity Analysis /
Australia

AU : Rio Tinto - Some big challenges in 2021

    Adrian Prendergast
    Adrian Prendergast

    Senior Analyst - Mining and Energy

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    CGS-CIMB
    19 January 2021
    Published byCGS-CIMB

    A good end to the year for RIO, with 4Q20 result steady vs full year guidance, and with iron ore and copper coming in slightly ahead of our estimates. Some important challenges face RIO in 2021 in its core iron ore and copper businesses. Pilbara iron ore faces an uncertain 2021 with unknowns around the new Heritage Act, which could hamper work to replace reserves. Meanwhile, tension remains in Mongolia with the government not happy with the recent capex blowout, schedule slip and financing options at Oyu Tolgoi underground development (OTUG). We see RIO as trading close to fair value, supported by strong fundamentals and an impressive dividend profile. We maintain our Hold rating.