Equity Analysis /
Australia

AU : Red 5 - Increasing our confidence as final hurdle nears

    Mat Collings
    Mat Collings

    Research Analyst

    CGS-CIMB
    25 March 2022
    Published by

    Following recent management updates on progress at King of the Hills (KOTH), we refresh our view on RED. With pre-production activities within schedule and budget, gas pipeline and powerhouse commissioning now underway, energisation and commissioning of the SAG mill remains the final major activity (in our view) on the pathway to gold production next quarter. We have now removed our 20% discount to project NAV at KOTH on a 12-month outlook, viewing the project as materially de-risked. We also reduce our discount rate from 8% to 5%, reflecting RED’s ability to reduce its WACC over the next 12 months once in production by refinancing. Our 12-month price target moves to A$0./share (from A$0.34) and we move to an Add recommendation on our outlook.