Equity Analysis /
Australia

AU : New Hope Corporation - Dividend harvest to build

    Tom Sartor
    Tom Sartor

    Senior Analyst - Resources & Metals

    CGS-CIMB
    25 March 2022
    Published by

    Among NHC’s record 1H22 financials we are impressed with Bengalla’s strong volume outlook, helping to contain costs. The 13cps special dividend was a surprise, justified by higher than expected 1H cash flow and an extraordinarily strong 2H cashflow outlook. Base case valuation adjusts to $3.40ps (from $3.05). Bull case adjusts to $3.91ps. We forecast 50cps of FY22 dividends (+15% yield) alongside the accumulation of strong net cash. Current coal pricing infers strong upside to our base forecasts. Maintain Add with a forecast 12-month total return of ~22%.