NAB has today announced the completion of its $2.5bn on-market share buy-back. NAB has also announced that it will commence a further on-market buy-back of up to $2.5bn. After allowing for the further buy-back announced today, we are forecasting NAB to have a CET1 ratio of 11.5% at end-FY23; we expect this to equate to surplus CET1 capital of ~$2.5bn above a CET1 ratio of 11.0%. A potential AUSTRAC-related penalty poses downside risk to our surplus capital forecast. Target price increased to $30.50 (previously $30.00). Retain Hold recommendation.