Equity Analysis /
Australia

AU : MyDeal.com.au - The potential for gross sales to hit $500m by FY25 is now understood; move to Hold

    Alexander Mees
    Alexander Mees

    Research Analyst

    CGS-CIMB
    25 March 2022
    Published by

    At its 1H22 result on 28 February, MYD guided to a gross sales target of $500m by FY25. This guidance may reduce the element of surprise in future sales releases, making them less likely to act as price catalysts. We have updated our earnings estimates following the result, increasing our forecast EBITDA loss for the full year FY22 from $4.7m to $11.7m. With MYD now guiding to EBITDA profitability in FY25, a year later than we had previously anticipated, we have also increased our FY23F EBITDA loss forecast from $2.2m to $7.5m. The near-term cash flow requirements of increased investment in inventories, staff and brand development reduces our DCF valuation, which takes our target price from $0.90 to $0.60, which is in line with the current share price. We have lowered our rating from Add to Hold.