ELD will report its 1H21 result on 17 May. We expect ELD to beat consensus and note that our forecast is well ahead of them. We forecast a strong result (+35% EBIT growth) underpinned by a much improved summer cropping season, high livestock prices, buoyant real estate market, full six months of the AIRR acquisition and recent bolt-ons. We have upgraded our forecasts for higher than expected livestock prices. While we rate the ELD business model and management team highly, trading on an FY21F EV/EBITDA multiple of 10.9x, we maintain a Hold rating. We are also cognisant that earnings growth will moderate post the 1H21 and cattle prices will eventually fall from these record high levels.
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