AU : APA Group - 2021 Investor Day

APA highlighted the significant investment pipeline that it has the capabilities to pursue, enlarged by the expansion of its target universe into electrification opportunities (and remains domestic and USA). We appreciate the greater framework set around the distribution guidance presented today, but think APA’s intention to cease earnings guidance beyond FY21 will reduce the confidence of investors that took comfort from its provision. We make no material change to EBITDA or DPS forecasts; tax and capex spend adjusted given indications provided today. Target Price of $10.53/sh unchanged. At current prices, we estimate the stock is trading on a 5.5% cash yield (franking uncertain), 17% potential 12 month return, and c.9% pa IRR on a five year basis.

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