Sovereign Analysis /
Angola

Angola's post-pandemic economic outlook (presentation)

  • Angola was hit hard by the effects of the pandemic and was already carrying vulnerabilities entering the crisis

  • IMF support, official sector debt restructuring and sound policies helped it weather the storm and avert default

  • We summarise investor perceptions of the sovereign bonds and the risks and challenges that Angola's economy is facing

Angola's post-pandemic economic outlook (presentation)
Stuart Culverhouse
Stuart Culverhouse

Head of Sovereign & Fixed Income Research

Tellimer Research
22 November 2021
Published by

Angola was hit hard by the effects of the pandemic (mainly due to loss of revenue from lower oil prices, given its oil dependence: 90% of exports, 60% of fiscal revenue) although it was already carrying vulnerabilities entering the crisis.

But a combination of IMF support, official sector debt restructuring (a debt restructuring agreement with China and deferral, under the G20's Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI), of debt service payments on its bilateral debt), and sound policies helped it weather the storm reasonably well, and avert a sovereign default. Higher than expected oil prices this year also helped improve the near-term outlook.

Oil price - Brent (US$ pb)

However significant challenges remain, especially with elections next year, not least Angola’s persistently sluggish economic growth rate and securing debt sustainability (with public debt/GDP c100%).

Angola real GDP growth (%)

In this slide deck (available to Tellimer Insights Pro clients), we summarise recent economic developments in Angola, investor perceptions of the sovereign bonds and the risks and challenges that the economy is facing.

Click on the “Read the full report” button below for the full presentation.