Equity Analysis /
Thailand

Sansiri PCL: Ambitious business plan for 2022

  • Weak 2021 presales, but transference likely to beat target

  • Ambitious 2022 business plan

  • Scope for upside to the profit forecasts of the street and ourselves

Bualuang Securities
13 January 2022

SIRI held an analyst meeting on Tuesday at which it announced a much bigger YoY launch and presales plan (from a low 2021 base) and a moderately higher YoY transference target. If the firm were to achieve its targets, there would be scope for upside to the 2022 core earnings forecasts of the street and ourselves. Our BUY call stands to a YE22 target price of Bt1.60, pegged to a PER of 9.5x.

Weak 2021 presales, but transference likely to beat target

SIRI is likely to mark 2021 presales of Bt26.1bn (73% low-rise, 27% condo), flat YoY and below the company’s target of Bt30.7bn. We assume condo presales of Bt7bn, up 6% YoY. In contrast, low-rise bookings are likely to be about Bt19bn, down 3% YoY. We expect SIRI to report 2021 sales of Bt32bn (including Bt5.2bn in sales of JV condos), down 27% YoY (due to heavy inventory clearance sales in 2020), but a little above its target for the year.