Morning Note /
Russia

Alfa Morning Bulletin: 9 April 2021

  • Russian equities built on the previous session’s rebound

  • Strong gains for select Russian stocks

  • On track to close the week on the back foot

Alfa
9 April 2021
Published byAlfa

Russian equities built on the previous session’s rebound: Markets advanced higher on Thursday supported by the Federal Reserve’s commitment to loose monetary policy irrespective of a rapidly recovering economy. Russian stocks built on Wednesday’s recovery – RTSI (+0.8% @ 1,440) and IMOEX (+0.2% @ 3,508) – on signs of an easing of geopolitical tensions and sanctions risk perception. Most of the gains were concentrated in metals & miners and financial stocks. The ruble treaded water before gaining traction in the evening session (+0.3% @ 76.73) due to a weaker oil price and sanctions risk simmering in the background. Crude quotes remain on the back foot (Brent +0.1% @ 63.24) due to Covid concerns and an unexpected uptick in US gasoline inventories last week.

On track to close the week on the back foot: We expect the Russian market to open on the back foot today as the rally peters out in Asia this morning due to inflationary worries in China and fears of policy tightening by Beijing. Geopolitics is still hang over the Russian investment case and escalation or de-escalation will undoubtedly determine the potency of the pending US sanctions, i.e. whether they are economically damaging or more-of-the same against individuals and state agencies. Oil prices are ticking lower and the US dollar is strengthening along with Treasury yields, hence Russian are likely to face selling pressure today.

Key news

CBR presents its digital ruble concept – Neutral

Bank St Petersburg (O/W): Supervisory Board recommends dividends and buyback – Neutral-to-positive