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Alfa Morning Bulletin: 3 June 2021

  • Russian commodity names led the march forward
  • Global markets in holding pattern with all eyes on tomorrow’s US monthly payrolls report
  • Russian advance likely to be capped by cautious global mood

Russian commodity names led the march forward: The global equity markets are caught in a holding pattern this week as investors weigh inflation concerns with economic recovery. Russian stocks are outperforming most global peers supported by the rally in commodity prices and the reflation trade which continues to benefit cyclical stocks – RTSI (+1.8% @ 1,643) and IMOEX (+1.4% @ 3,817). The ruble pared gains to close flat (unch. @ 73.18) while oil prices continued to march higher (Brent +1.6% @ 71.35).

Russian advance likely to be capped by cautious global mood: Russian equities are set to move higher today supported by the reflation trade and strong commodity prices. We expect cyclical stocks to lead the advance again. A pullback in the US dollar and tightening of 10UST should allow the ruble to strengthen further today. Overall, gains will be capped by the cautious global mood as investors await the next market trigger and assess the pro and cons of inflation and economic recovery.

KEY NEWS

Inflation reported at 0.6% MTD as of 31 May, inflationary expectations slightly down – POSITIVE

MOEX (E/W): May 2021 trading results; NEUTRAL-to- POSITIVE

PhosAgro appeals US court ruling to cancel duties on phosphate imports – POSITIVE

Novatek secures 1.5 mtpa long-term LNG offtake contracts with Glencore and Zhejiang Energy – POSITIVE


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The contents of this document have been prepared by Joint Stock Company “Alfa-Bank” ("Alfa Bank") as Investment Research within the meaning of Article 36 of Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2017/5...

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