Morning Note /
Russia

Alfa Morning Bulletin: 24 November 2021

  • Cyclicals lead rebound in Russian stocks

  • Angst over more hawkish monetary policy pressure global equities

  • Russian cyclical stocks poised for more gains

Alfa
24 November 2021
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Cyclicals lead rebound in Russian stocks: Russian equities found relief yesterday as geopolitics took a back seat – RTSI (+2.1% @ 1,662) and IMOEX (+2.3% @ 3,960) – there was support from a higher oil price and the global rotation back into cyclical stocks. The ruble strengthened in evening trade (+0.7% @ 74.30) despite a strong US dollar and aversion to EM assets. The Turkish lira (TRY -12.40% @ 13.04) continued to plummet. Oil prices advanced yesterday (Brent +3.3% @ 82.31) despite the US and other nations announcing the release of strategic oil reserves to try and cool prices.

Russian cyclical stocks poised for more gains: The rotation out of growth stocks, amid a wider bond yield environment, back into cyclical shares is supportive for Russian equities and we expect a further advance today. The higher oil price environment provides additional support to the ruble and Russian investment case. The cyclical sectors, i.e. banks, energy, metals & miners and soft commodities can be expected to lead the charge higher. Attention today will be focused on the latest Federal Reserve minutes for a read-through on the pace tapering and rate hike timing. There is also a large batch of US macro data due out ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday tomorrow.

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