Alfa Morning Bulletin: 15 September 2020

  • Markets tread water struggling for direction
  • Aeroflot planning SPO
  • Russia catches external updraft

Markets tread water struggling for direction: Markets started the week on a fragile note fluctuating between gains and losses. Russian stocks erased opening gains before closing above water – RTSI (+0.4% @ 1,228) and IMOEX (+0.6% @ 2,928) – with stock dynamics mixed. The ruble slipped lower (-0.3% @ 75.27) despite a weaker US dollar (DXY -0.3% @ 93.06). Oil prices fluctuation between green and red all session in a very narrow range (Brent -0.6% @ 39.61), but Brent is struggling to break above $40/bbl due to demand concerns. European markets traded sideways (StoxxEuro600 +0.2%) as investors showed caution at the start of a week full of potential catalysts, including a busy schedule of central bank meetings.

Aeroflot planning SPO: Aeroflot (AFLT RU; Not Rated) plans to open up its upcoming secondary share offering (SPO) to private investors, according to Reuters. The state-owned airline has approved an issue of up to 1.7 billion new shares. The new share issue would more than double Aeroflot’s total shares outstanding and would represent 60% of its enlarged capital if issued in full. The price is yet to be set by the company.

Russia catches external updraft: The Russian market is expected to open higher today catching an updraft of global optimism fueled by vaccine hopes, M&A deals in the tech sector and strong Chinse industrial output for August, including the first positive monthly retail sales read this year. That said, market volatility is expected to rise this week due to a busy agenda including a batch of central banks announcing policy decisions ahead of a quadruple witching trading session on Friday. Looking ahead to today we expect cyclicals in the metals & mining and banking sectors to lead the charge higher in the Russian stock universe.


Federal budget expenditure growth decelerated to 26% y/y in 8M20, however cabinet spending guidance rose to RUB23.7 for 2020 – MIXED

Economy Ministry upgrades 2020 GDP forecast to -3.9% – MIXED

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