Morning Note /
Russia

Alfa Morning Bulletin: 15 March 2022

  • Crude prices slump; markets in risk-off on concerns over Ukraine and Covid spread in China

  • This morning Asian markets have declined with China's new wave of Covid-19 infections casting a cloud over the outlook

  • The IMF expects a recession in Russia - NEGATIVE

Alfa
15 March 2022
Published byAlfa

Crude prices slump; markets in risk-off on concerns over Ukraine and Covid spread in China: The Russian equities market remains closed this week. Yesterday the LSE issued a statement that it is to delist shares of EVR LN, POG LN, POLY LN and RAV LN from the FTSE Russell indices in conjunction with the forthcoming March index review. To remind, the MSCI has removed Russia from the Emerging Market Indexes. The ruble gained some ground yesterday to close at RUB132.67/EUR. The Russian currency remains at RUB118/USD. Commodities, including crude prices, have retreated in recent days due to a combination of a Covid spike in China and hopes for a settlement in Ukraine as talks at a senior-level continue today. Global oil prices fell overnight as the prospects of talks between Russia and Ukraine reaching some kind of resolution eased immediate concerns about energy supply disruption (Brent -5.2% @ 101.52). Nickel trading, which was suspended because of a massive short-squeeze last week, is to resume trading tomorrow.

This morning Asian markets have declined with China's new wave of Covid-19 infections casting a cloud over the outlook for the world's second-largest economy. More broadly, a lack of major progress seen in Ukraine-Russia talks on Monday added to the nervousness in equity markets, while concerns are now growing about the potential for new tensions between China and United States. The two-day FOMC meeting starts today with investors bracing for the first Federal Reserve rate hike since 2018. Against that backdrop US and European stocks futures are pointing to a lower open.

KEY NEWS

The IMF expects a recession in Russia - NEGATIVE