Alfa Morning Bulletin: 11 May 2021

  • Russian stocks opened the week with mixed dynamics:
  • Tech rout drags markets lower as inflation fears mount
  • Russian stocks expected to be on the back foot as global tech selloff deepens

Russian stocks opened the week with mixed dynamics: The Russian market was mixed yesterday – RTSI (-0.4% @ 1,570) and IMOEX (+0.3% @ 3,694) – with a heavy selloff in tech stocks offset by growth in cyclical names. Base metals, gold names, oil & gas stocks and banks were well bid. The ruble closed flat (+0.0% @ 74.34) in line with the oil price (Brent +0.1% @ 68.32).

Russian stocks expected to be on the back foot as global tech selloff deepens: We expect a mixed picture for the Russian stock market today, although the global selloff in tech is likely to drag the overall market lower. Sberbank is ex-dividend today and that will also place downward pressure on Russian indexes. We expect Russian gold stocks and base metals to continue their advance. Gold is trading higher this morning and the US dollar remains weak on speculation that growing price pressure would erode the greenback’s value. A firm oil price should provide support to stocks in the oil & gas sector. A host of Federal Reserve speakers this week will be closely watched by markets to assess how authorities are likely to respond to receding risks posed by the coronavirus in some major economies. A test case on US inflation will come this week when the Labor Department releases its latest consumer price index report on Wednesday. The MSCI May SAIR rebalancing will be announced after the bell tonight, with OZON on track for inclusion to the Russian standard index.


Rosstat reported 0.6% m/m inflation for April or 5.5% y/y – MIXED

Finance Ministry is reducing daily forex purchase in May to RUB6.5 bn from RUB8.4 bn in April – NEUTRAL


MOEX (E/W): April 2021 trading results - NEUTRAL-to-POSITIVE

Iron ore surges above $200/t on worsening ties between China and Australia and steel and ore demand strengthening in China; talks of another commodities super-cycle pushes prices higher

Severstal increased its free float to 22.97% - NEUTRAL

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The contents of this document have been prepared by Joint Stock Company “Alfa-Bank” ("Alfa Bank") as Investment Research within the meaning of Article 36 of Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2017/5...

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