Equity Analysis /
Mexico

AIRPORTS: Passengers exceed 2019 figures at year-end

  • Passengers at the airports operated in Mexico by Asur, Gap and Oma, continued with advances in line with our estimates

  • As of total operations (including those outside Mexico), Asur recorded a 79.1% rise, Gap +58.8% and Oma +58.1%

  • Despite the challenges in the environment, passenger demand remained solid exceeding pre-pandemic levels

Jose Itzamna Espitia Hernandez
Jose Itzamna Espitia Hernandez

Senior Equity Research Analyst, Infrastructure, Materials and Transportation

Follow
Banorte
10 January 2022
Published byBanorte
  • Passengers at the airports operated in Mexico by Asur, Gap and Oma, continued with advances in December, in line with our estimates

  • Regarding total operations (including those outside Mexico), Asur showed passenger traffic growth of 79.1%, Gap an increase of 58.8% and Oma a rise of 58.1%

  • Despite the challenges in the environment, passenger demand remained solid exceeding pre-pandemic levels. In this way, we reiterate our positive opinion for the sector

Total passenger traffic of the 3 airport groups in December recorded an annual increase of 58.8% (airports operated in Mexico). This was due to a demand that continued to be solid, while growth rates were lower compared to previous months on a more normalized comparative base. Thus, total passengers at Mexico's operated airports showed a 58.8% y/y growth, equivalent to 101.9% of December 2019 (vs. 101.1% in November), placing in line with our estimate of ⁓102.0%. Domestic passengers (61.7% of the total) posted a rise of 41.9% y/y, while international passengers had a higher growth of 96.5% y/y.

Individually, Asur recorded a 79.1% y/y increase, including a 67.7% y/y growth in passengers from Mexico. In San Juan Puerto Rico, traffic was 98.3% of 2019, while in Colombia it represented 111.2% of the same month of 2019. On the other hand, Gap presented an advance in total passengers in December of 58.8% y/y. Passenger traffic at the airports it operates in Mexico, i.e. excluding Montego Bay Airport in Jamaica (with traffic equivalent to 75.9% of the 2019 figure) and Kingston Airport (62.4% of 2019), had an annual increase of 52.8%. Finally, Oma showed a 58.1% y/y growth in total passengers.

Asur, Gap and Oma's LTM total passenger variations stood at 92.9%, 57.1% and 62.9% (January 2021 – December 2021), compared to LTM to November 2021 of 69.1%, 41.7% and 45.6% (December 2020 – November 2021), respectively.

Corporate news

·      Gap mentioned 5 new routes were opened during the month and that the volume of seats offered grew 23.9% y/y, while the load factor stood at 76.4% vs. 67.5% in December 2020.

Conclusion… December passenger traffic at airports operated by private groups in Mexico showed a solid performance, in line with expectations, exceeding pre-pandemic levels. Considering all operations, including those outside Mexico, Asur once again stood out for presenting the highest y/y increase, as well as for registering the highest positive variation vs. pre-pandemic figures, as did Gap. We believe that, despite the challenges in the environment, the outlook for the sector continues to be favorable, derived from a strong demand and as the vaccination process progresses, which should be reflected in interesting growths for companies’ results this year. In our institutional portfolio we have exposure to Asur with a PT of MXN 483.50 per share and Gap with a PT of MXN 300.00, both with a Buy rating. On the other hand, for Oma our PT is MXN 158.00 per share, also with a Buy rating.

December passenger traffic

In the following graphs below, we can observe the evolution of the total passengers of the airport groups as a percentage of the 2019 figures in the last 12 months, and the performance of their shares vs. S&P/BMV IPC.

Sector comparison – Figures at December 2021