Passengers at the airports operated in Mexico by Asur, Gap and Oma, continued with advances in December, in line with our estimates
Regarding total operations (including those outside Mexico), Asur showed passenger traffic growth of 79.1%, Gap an increase of 58.8% and Oma a rise of 58.1%
Despite the challenges in the environment, passenger demand remained solid exceeding pre-pandemic levels. In this way, we reiterate our positive opinion for the sector
Total passenger traffic of the 3 airport groups in December recorded an annual increase of 58.8% (airports operated in Mexico). This was due to a demand that continued to be solid, while growth rates were lower compared to previous months on a more normalized comparative base. Thus, total passengers at Mexico's operated airports showed a 58.8% y/y growth, equivalent to 101.9% of December 2019 (vs. 101.1% in November), placing in line with our estimate of ⁓102.0%. Domestic passengers (61.7% of the total) posted a rise of 41.9% y/y, while international passengers had a higher growth of 96.5% y/y.
Individually, Asur recorded a 79.1% y/y increase, including a 67.7% y/y growth in passengers from Mexico. In San Juan Puerto Rico, traffic was 98.3% of 2019, while in Colombia it represented 111.2% of the same month of 2019. On the other hand, Gap presented an advance in total passengers in December of 58.8% y/y. Passenger traffic at the airports it operates in Mexico, i.e. excluding Montego Bay Airport in Jamaica (with traffic equivalent to 75.9% of the 2019 figure) and Kingston Airport (62.4% of 2019), had an annual increase of 52.8%. Finally, Oma showed a 58.1% y/y growth in total passengers.
Asur, Gap and Oma's LTM total passenger variations stood at 92.9%, 57.1% and 62.9% (January 2021 – December 2021), compared to LTM to November 2021 of 69.1%, 41.7% and 45.6% (December 2020 – November 2021), respectively.
· Gap mentioned 5 new routes were opened during the month and that the volume of seats offered grew 23.9% y/y, while the load factor stood at 76.4% vs. 67.5% in December 2020.
Conclusion… December passenger traffic at airports operated by private groups in Mexico showed a solid performance, in line with expectations, exceeding pre-pandemic levels. Considering all operations, including those outside Mexico, Asur once again stood out for presenting the highest y/y increase, as well as for registering the highest positive variation vs. pre-pandemic figures, as did Gap. We believe that, despite the challenges in the environment, the outlook for the sector continues to be favorable, derived from a strong demand and as the vaccination process progresses, which should be reflected in interesting growths for companies’ results this year. In our institutional portfolio we have exposure to Asur with a PT of MXN 483.50 per share and Gap with a PT of MXN 300.00, both with a Buy rating. On the other hand, for Oma our PT is MXN 158.00 per share, also with a Buy rating.
December passenger traffic
In the following graphs below, we can observe the evolution of the total passengers of the airport groups as a percentage of the 2019 figures in the last 12 months, and the performance of their shares vs. S&P/BMV IPC.
Sector comparison – Figures at December 2021