Equity Analysis /
Thailand

Thai Oil PCL: A brighter year has dawned

  • Substantial earnings growth expected for 1Q22

  • Demand hike to boost GIM YoY, higher cost to squeeze GIM QoQ…

  • …and bolster further YoY core profit growth

Suppata Srisuk
Suppata Srisuk

Equity Research Analyst

Bualuang Securities
21 April 2022

The improved market outlook should boost TOP’s operational performance this year. Furthermore, expectations of strong core earnings growth through 2Q22 should boost TOP’s share price going forward. And its valuation is still undemanding—a YE22 PBV of only 0.9x (1SD below its long-term mean).

Substantial earnings growth expected for 1Q22

We expect TOP to post strong earnings growth for 1Q22 with a net profit of Bt7,121m (up 112% YoY and 42% QoQ) and a core profit of Bt2,861m (up 84% YoY and 36% QoQ). The key drivers for the earnings expansion would be: 1) higher YoY crude run, 2) a fatter YoY and QoQ market GIM, and 3) inventory gain.