The positive 4Q21 core earnings surprise and strong 2022 outlook will ignite a stock price rally. We suggest building positions in anticipation of the full release of pent-up fly-in medical demand later this year (which will be a major earnings driver). BDMS deserves a valuation re-rating to a bullish phase PER of 40-45x (1SD to 1.5SD above its 2006-21 mean). Our BUY call stands to a YE22 DCF-derived target price of Bt26 (6.9% WACC, 2% terminal growth).
Profit beat our estimate and was far above consensus
BDMS reported a core profit of Bt2.8bn for 4Q21, up by 128% YoY and 19% QoQ. The bottom-line beat our estimate by 13% (due to a fatter GM than we had assumed) and the consensus by 30%. 2021 core earnings were Bt7.9bn, up 31% YoY. BDMS announced a DPS of Bt0.20 for 2H21 (lower than our assumption of Bt0.26, but above the street assumption of Bt0.15), a 0.9% yield (XD Mar 9, payment Apr 29).