We expect an unexciting result outlook in 4Q21 and consensus earnings cut flow due to after-fact and priced in (share price trades 36% below Bt7.7 BVPS at end-3Q21 including downside risk at loss of 21.5m from treasury share at cost of Bt6.6/share). We look ahead to LPN’s wake-up year in 2022 on an aggressive business plan (launch, presales and revenue target). We maintain BUY at a YE22 target price of Bt5.50 (pegged to a PER of 10x, its long-term mean).
LPN’s 3Q21 net profit was Bt26.5m, down by 74% YoY and 78% QoQ. Excluding Bt2.8m net-tax gains of asset sales, core profit was Bt24m, down 77% YoY and 80% QoQ. Net profit was far below our estimate of Bt50m (due to higher-than-expected SG&A expenses) and well below consensus forecast of Bt81m (disappointing revenue and margins).