Earnings Report /
Thailand

Gulf Energy Development PCL: 3Q21 miss, but GULF’s sexy outlook beckons unchanged

  • Both NPAT and core profit missed our estimates

  • GULF reported a 3Q21 net profit of Bt1,588m

  • Revenue increased by 51% YoY

Kijapat Wongmetta
Kijapat Wongmetta

Equity Research Analyst

Bualuang Securities
15 November 2021

GULF’s core earnings profile has the fastest 2021-25 CAGR among our Utilities coverage. Moreover, we still see scope for upside to our long-term profit forecasts and target price from potential investments in new power projects in Thailand, tied to the upcoming PDP2022 (there may soon be more details). If GULF were to announce any sizable and profitable investment, it would generate positive sentiment toward the stock. BUY!

Both NPAT and core profit missed our estimates

GULF reported a 3Q21 net profit of Bt1,588m, up by 64% YoY and 13% QoQ. NPAT was 48% short of our estimate (and 22% below the street), due to a slimmer GM and heavier interest expenses and FX losses than assumed. Stripping out the net FX losses, core earnings would be Bt2,293m, up by 73% YoY and 64% QoQ. The core number missed our estimate by 28% (a slimmer GM and heavier interest expenses than assumed), but was in line with the consensus.