The improving 4Q21 outlook and the market’s favorable perceptions over the potential for growth among new businesses should support the share price going forward. In any case, BCP currently trades at a YE22 PBV of just 0.6x (1.1SD below its long-term mean of 1.0x) which should buffer against the risk of price slippage. Within Refinery space, we prefer TOP, as its production cost efficiency makes its earnings profile relatively more leveraged to a rebounding GRM.
BCP posted a 3Q21 net profit of Bt1,820m, a YoY turnaround and up 3% QoQ. Stripping out extra items, the core profit would be Bt549m, up 11-fold YoY but down 10% QoQ. The result was 17% above our forecast, due to higher other income and extra gains than expected (it was in line with the consensus).