A positive surprise in 3Q21 result to the consensus and earnings upgrade flow will be a positive catalyst for the share price. We prefer BDMS on upcycle earnings to continue in 2022-23 with its ESG leadership in the Thai Healthcare sector. The largest hospital network in Thailand will support BDMS building an ecosystem focused on digital healthcare and collaboration with partners. The stock deserves valuations re-rating to bullish cycle PER of 40-44x (1.0-1.5x SDs above its 2006-2020 mean). Valuations look cheaper from 41.3x in 2022 to 35.1x in 2023. Our BUY rating stands, at a YE22 DCF-derived target price of Bt26 (6.8% WACC and 2.0% terminal growth).
In line with our estimate, but above the consensus forecast
BDMS reported a net profit of Bt2.5bn for 3Q21, up by 39% YoY and 73% QoQ. Excluding Bt160m one-time net-tax other income, core profit was Bt2.3bn, in line with our forecast but 9% above the consensus due to a positive surprise in core margin