Prolonged strong core earnings growth into 2Q22 and throughout 2022 and potential flows of consensus earnings upgrades should trigger PTTEP’s share price rally. The current valuation is still attractive—a YE22 PBV of 1.3x (0.7SD below its long-term mean of 2.0x) and a good 2022 dividend yield of 5.4% (against 2.6% for SET). BUY!
PTTEP reported a 1Q22 net profit of Bt10,519m, down by 9% YoY and 1% QoQ. Stripping out extra items, core earnings would be Bt18,890m, up 118% YoY and 13% QoQ. The result was 11% below our forecast, due to bigger extra losses than modeled (but it was in line with that of the consensus).