The reopening of Thailand and the return of cross-border tourists will support traffic to malls and department stores. We are fully confident that CRC will prove a strong earnings recovery. However, its current valuation and share price performance (relative to other retailer peers) mostly price in recovery expectations, so our HOLD call stands.
Earnings missed our estimate and the consensus
CRC reported a core profit of Bt1.1bn for 1Q22, up 175% YoY but down 56% QoQ. The result was 15% below our estimate (and 8% shy of the consensus), as revenue and margins were lower than assumed. Strong recoveries in traffic across all businesses and operating jurisdictions drove the YoY earnings growth. The QoQ profit decline was due to seasonality (especially at the fashion business) and margin squeeze for hardline sales.