Sansiri PCL: 1Q21 miss (both us and the street); new exciting story going forward

  • Result below estimation
  • SIRI reported NPAT of Bt384m for 1Q21
  • The YoY core turnaround was led by sales and GM expansion

We expect SIRI’s stock price to rally on excitement over its new investment. Once XPG’s capital increases are complete, the cost for SIRI’s 15% stake will be Bt1.7/share, below the implied fully-diluted market value of XPG of Bt2.07/share (extrapolated from XPG’s May 14 pre-recap price of Bt5.20). We will revisit our model and call. Till then, our YE21 target price is Bt0.85.

Result below estimation

SIRI reported NPAT of Bt384m for 1Q21. Excluding a Bt7m reversal of a project impairment, core earnings would be Bt377m, a YoY turn-around from the 1Q20 core loss of Bt51m but down 33% QoQ. The core result was 17% below our estimate (18% higher interest expenses and 75% lower equity income than assumed) and 21% short of the street.

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