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PhosAgro: 1Q21 IFRS financials review – EBITDA in line with consensus, up by 86% q/q

  • PhosAgro reported its first quarter results which came broadly in line with market estimates
  • Yesterday PhosAgro’s Board of Directors recommended 1Q21 dividends in amount RUB 105/share
  • It is reported that in early April 2021, a slight price correction was noted in fertilizer markets

PhosAgro (PHOR: LI; O/W; TP $21.4/GDR) reported its first quarter results which came broadly in line with market estimates. Quarterly EBITDA grew 86% q/q to RUB 34.3 bn reflecting higher fertilizer prices and sales volumes increase. The figure represents fresh record since the company went public. EBITDA in the phosphate-based fertilizer segment amounted to RUB 26.3 bn (USD 353 mn), up 64.3% y/y on back of the record-high purchasing power of farmers amid high prices for agricultural products. The main sales markets were Latin America and Europe. EBITDA in the nitrogen-based fertilizer segment amounted to RUB 7.6 bn (USD 102 mn), up 61.3% y/y. Strong EBITDA supported robust free cash flow generation to RUB 15.2 bn which is slightly below our estimates. As of the end of the quarter net debt/EBITDA ration went down to 1.45x.

Yesterday PhosAgro’s Board of Directors recommended 1Q21 dividends in amount RUB 105/share. The total payout of RUB13.5 bn represents 64% of adjusted net profit or 89% of quarterly FCF. Record date is set for 5 July. The amount of dividends implies 2.3% dividend yield not annualized and is above our estimated range of RUB 61-91/share assumed from the dividend policy.

It is reported that in early April 2021, a slight price correction was noted in fertilizer markets that was associated with the end of the main seasonal demand in markets in the northern hemisphere (Europe, China and the US). At the same time, prices for agricultural products remained at their highest levels in recent years supporting high affordability. We are looking ahead to the peak season for Brazil and India in 2Q-3Q.

The Company will hold a conference call and webcast the same day at 14:00 London time (16:00 Moscow; 9:00 New York). Russia: +7 495 213 1767; UK +44 (0)330 336 9126; USA 888-254-3590. Conference ID numbers: English conference ID: 4480063; Russian conference ID: 1505879.


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The contents of this document have been prepared by Joint Stock Company “Alfa-Bank” ("Alfa Bank") as Investment Research within the meaning of Article 36 of Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2017/5...

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