We have upsized our 2022 earnings forecast by 55% to Bt466m (up 140% YoY) and our target price from Bt16 to Bt23 (pegged to PEG 1x, assuming a 2021-23 EPS CAGR of 67%). We believe that our 2022 profit growth forecast is achievable, as the three following drivers will propagate top- and bottom-line expansion:
#1 ATM/CDM services
On Nov 8, SABUY announced that it would acquire 50% of Platt Finserve Co Ltd (PFS), a service provider for 10,000 ATMs/CDMs offering counter services at 7-Eleven branches. PFS’s contract runs 10 years. Other ATMs will be moved out from these branches. And some counter services will migrate to CDMs (such as bank cash deposits). It’s a win-win deal, as banks don’t want to shoulder the costs of both ATMs and branches. There are 50k ATMs nationwide. PFS will generate income from installation and transaction fees tied to CDM services. SABUY expects PFS to realize earnings of Bt300-500m/year for 2022 (we model for a 2022 PFS profit of only Bt300m). Furthermore, PFS plans to expand its CDM coverage to other big retailers.