Patrick Curran

Tellimer Research

Senior Economist @ Tellimer Research

Patrick focuses on emerging market macro/sovereign research. Prior to joining Tellimer, he worked at Eaton Vance in Boston conducting sovereign fixed income analysis and spent time at the South African Reserve Bank in Pretoria. He holds an MA in International Economics at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in Washington and is a CFA charterholder.

Patrick Curran
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Latest articles from Patrick Curran
Flash Report / Turkey

Turkey: Sharp policy shift solidified by 200bps rate cut

After last month’s surprise rate cut and last week’s sacking of three MPC members, the CBRT has doubled down on its accommodative shift with a 200bps rate cut today. This compares to the Bloomberg consensus of 100bps, with many forecasters projecting...
Tellimer Research Patrick
Patrick Curran @ Tellimer Research 21 October 2021
Turkey: Sharp policy shift solidified by 200bps rate cut
Turkey: Sharp policy shift solidified by 200bps rate cut

Nigeria: FX overhaul promised post-Dangote refinery

With the NGN still under fire, there finally seems to be some momentum for FX liberalisation. Based on the current Brent oil price (US$85/bbl) and refinery margin (US$10.84/bbl), and assuming an FX-denominated freight, storage and landing cost of 10%...
Tellimer Research Patrick
Patrick Curran @ Tellimer Research 21 October 2021
Nigeria: FX overhaul promised post-Dangote refinery
Nigeria: FX overhaul promised post-Dangote refinery

Egypt: Upgrade to Buy after selloff

As we highlighted recently, Egyptian credit has been a major underperformer in the recent EM selloff. Since mid-September, the Egypt EMBI index is down 6.7% in total return terms versus 4.7% for EMBI Africa and 2.7% for EMBI Global. While the IMF saw...
Tellimer Research Patrick
Patrick Curran @ Tellimer Research 20 October 2021
Egypt: Upgrade to Buy after selloff
Egypt: Upgrade to Buy after selloff
Flash Report / Turkey

Turkey: Central bank sacking sends lira into tailspin

The list of Erdogan's 'victims' continues to grow, with the President now having fired three Governors since mid-2019 and six MPC members since March. It is likely to depreciate further if the CBRT embarks on an aggressive cutting cycle, with the mar...
Tellimer Research Patrick
Patrick Curran @ Tellimer Research 14 October 2021
Turkey: Central bank sacking sends lira into tailspin
Turkey: Central bank sacking sends lira into tailspin

Iraq: Low election turnout, protests may reemerge, Iran and Saudi may not care

Iraq elections have seen voter turnout fall since 2005. Preliminary results suggests that no single bloc has a majority, as expected. Therefore, it should have the upper hand in negotiations. Al-Sadr is close to Iran, as is any political leader with ...
Tellimer Research Hasnain
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 12 October 2021
Iraq: Low election turnout, protests may reemerge, Iran and Saudi may not care
Iraq: Low election turnout, protests may reemerge, Iran and Saudi may not care

Plummeting reserves push Sri Lanka closer to default

Data released today by the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) shows a sharp drop in reserves in September, falling by nearly US$1bn to US$2.58bn from US$3.54bn in August. This is critically low, at a mere 1.6 months of trailing goods imports, and compa...
Tellimer Research Patrick
Patrick Curran @ Tellimer Research 8 October 2021
Plummeting reserves push Sri Lanka closer to default
Plummeting reserves push Sri Lanka closer to default

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