View all companies
Patrick Curran
Senior Economist @ Tellimer Research
Patrick focuses on emerging market macro/sovereign research. Prior to joining Tellimer, he worked at Eaton Vance in Boston conducting sovereign fixed income analysis and spent time at the South African Reserve Bank in Pretoria. He holds an MA in International Economics at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in Washington and is a CFA charterholder.
Hide filters Show filters
Latest from Patrick Curran
Sri Lanka: Debt sustainability analysis affirms recovery values
On 20 March the IMF Board approved a new US$3bn, 48-month EFF for Sri Lanka and published the accompanying DSA. There is a lot of ambiguity in the DSA and it is not the end of the road, but we update our recovery value assumptions. Recovery values of...
Patrick Curran @ Tellimer Research 22 March 2023
Oil price has erased all of the Russia-Ukraine premium, back to end-2021 levels
Growth and banking fears plunge oil price back to end-2021 level of low US$70s; we chart trade exposure across EM and DM. Next OPEC ministerial committee meeting in early April with full meeting on 4 June; higher probability of new output cut. Saudi,...
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 21 March 2023
The most attractive real yields in EM as SVB collapse raises chance of Fed pivot
Markets are now pricing in a markedly more dovish Fed rate path post-SVB crisis, but we think repricing is excessive. Still, the prospects of marginally lower terminal Fed funds rate and weaker dollar could support EM local currency debt. We survey r...
Patrick Curran @ Tellimer Research 16 March 2023
Turkey's opposition is diverse and its presidential candidate lacks charisma
Defeat for two-decade-long incumbent Erdogan would likely prompt a move away from unorthodox interest rate policy. Diverse opposition (leftist secularist, rightist nationalist, Islamist, liberal) unite behind uncharismatic candidate. Erdogan trails i...
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 15 March 2023
Sri Lanka: Recovery values updated as IMF approval nears
The IMF Board is scheduled to review Sri Lanka’s EFF on 20 March, after receiving the necessary financing assurances. Board approval is not necessarily end of the road, as Zambia has illustrated, but is a major step given recent hangups. Retain Buy w...
Patrick Curran @ Tellimer Research 13 March 2023
Zambia: Stuck in the mud with frustration growing
Zambian debt restructurings is being held up by China and IMF's decision to classify its debt carrying capacity as low. These delays are causing obvious frustration for the Zambian authorities amid a worsening economic situation. Zambia may have to l...
Patrick Curran @ Tellimer Research 10 March 2023
Filter by tags
Fixed Income
Patrick Curran
Fixed Income - Sovereign
Macro-strategy
Equity
Macro
Spotlight
Africa
IMF
Asia
Fixed Income - Corporate
Zambia
US
MENA
