Patrick Curran

Tellimer Research

Senior Economist @ Tellimer Research

Patrick focuses on emerging market macro/sovereign research. Prior to joining Tellimer, he worked at Eaton Vance in Boston conducting sovereign fixed income analysis and spent time at the South African Reserve Bank in Pretoria. He holds an MA in International Economics at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in Washington and is a CFA charterholder.

Patrick Curran
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Latest from Patrick Curran

Sri Lanka: Debt sustainability analysis affirms recovery values

On 20 March the IMF Board approved a new US$3bn, 48-month EFF for Sri Lanka and published the accompanying DSA. There is a lot of ambiguity in the DSA and it is not the end of the road, but we update our recovery value assumptions. Recovery values of...
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Patrick Curran @ Tellimer Research 22 March 2023
Sri Lanka: Debt sustainability analysis affirms recovery values
Sri Lanka: Debt sustainability analysis affirms recovery values

Oil price has erased all of the Russia-Ukraine premium, back to end-2021 levels

Growth and banking fears plunge oil price back to end-2021 level of low US$70s; we chart trade exposure across EM and DM. Next OPEC ministerial committee meeting in early April with full meeting on 4 June; higher probability of new output cut. Saudi,...
Tellimer Research Hasnain
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 21 March 2023
Oil price has erased all of the Russia-Ukraine premium, back to end-2021 levels
Oil price has erased all of the Russia-Ukraine premium, back to end-2021 levels

The most attractive real yields in EM as SVB collapse raises chance of Fed pivot

Markets are now pricing in a markedly more dovish Fed rate path post-SVB crisis, but we think repricing is excessive. Still, the prospects of marginally lower terminal Fed funds rate and weaker dollar could support EM local currency debt. We survey r...
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Patrick Curran @ Tellimer Research 16 March 2023
The most attractive real yields in EM as SVB collapse raises chance of Fed pivot
The most attractive real yields in EM as SVB collapse raises chance of Fed pivot

Turkey's opposition is diverse and its presidential candidate lacks charisma

Defeat for two-decade-long incumbent Erdogan would likely prompt a move away from unorthodox interest rate policy. Diverse opposition (leftist secularist, rightist nationalist, Islamist, liberal) unite behind uncharismatic candidate. Erdogan trails i...
Tellimer Research Hasnain
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 15 March 2023
Turkey's opposition is diverse and its presidential candidate lacks charisma
Turkey's opposition is diverse and its presidential candidate lacks charisma

Sri Lanka: Recovery values updated as IMF approval nears

The IMF Board is scheduled to review Sri Lanka’s EFF on 20 March, after receiving the necessary financing assurances. Board approval is not necessarily end of the road, as Zambia has illustrated, but is a major step given recent hangups. Retain Buy w...
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Patrick Curran @ Tellimer Research 13 March 2023
Sri Lanka: Recovery values updated as IMF approval nears
Sri Lanka: Recovery values updated as IMF approval nears

Zambia: Stuck in the mud with frustration growing

Zambian debt restructurings is being held up by China and IMF's decision to classify its debt carrying capacity as low. These delays are causing obvious frustration for the Zambian authorities amid a worsening economic situation. Zambia may have to l...
Tellimer Research Patrick
Patrick Curran @ Tellimer Research 10 March 2023
Zambia: Stuck in the mud with frustration growing
Zambia: Stuck in the mud with frustration growing

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