Patrick Curran

Tellimer Research

Senior Economist @ Tellimer Research

Patrick focuses on emerging market macro/sovereign research. Prior to joining Tellimer, he worked at Eaton Vance in Boston conducting sovereign fixed income analysis and spent time at the South African Reserve Bank in Pretoria. He holds an MA in International Economics at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in Washington and is a CFA charterholder.

Patrick Curran
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Latest articles from Patrick Curran

Turkey: New central bank governor stays course, for now; upgrade debt ratings

The CBRT held the one-week repo rate at 19% today, in line with the forecast of all but two of the 25 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. As long as rollover rates stay near unity, then Turkey will be able to weather the crisis, but a hard stop in fina...
Tellimer Research Patrick
Patrick Curran @ Tellimer Research 15 April 2021
Turkey: New central bank governor stays course, for now; upgrade debt ratings
Turkey: New central bank governor stays course, for now; upgrade debt ratings

Egypt makes progress on reforms but external vulnerability is rising

The Egyptian carry trade has been among the largest consensus trades of the past 12 months. After falling in recent years, gross public debt is projected to have increased from 84.2% of GDP in 201819 to 90.2% in 2019/20 and further to 93% in 2020/21 ...
Tellimer Research Patrick
Patrick Curran @ Tellimer Research 1 April 2021
Egypt makes progress on reforms but external vulnerability is rising
Egypt makes progress on reforms but external vulnerability is rising

Emerging market currency winners and losers from strengthening dollar

Contrary to our expectations (see here and here), and those of many market participants at the end of last year, the dollar has kicked off the year on the front foot and, by extension, led to currency weakness across the emerging and frontier FX univ...
Tellimer Research Patrick
Patrick Curran @ Tellimer Research 27 March 2021
Emerging market currency winners and losers from strengthening dollar
Emerging market currency winners and losers from strengthening dollar

Nigeria policy rate and FX regime left intact

Yesterday, the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) monetary policy committee (MPC) held its policy rate at 11.5%, with six members voting for the hold and three voting for an increase (50bps, 50bps and 75bps). In the press conference that followed the de...
Tellimer Research Patrick
Patrick Curran @ Tellimer Research 24 March 2021
Nigeria policy rate and FX regime left intact
Nigeria policy rate and FX regime left intact

Lebanon: Cabinet formation process collapses; no hope in sight

Lebanon’s outlook continues to plumb new lows, with Prime Minister-designate Hariri announcing after a meeting with President Aoun on Monday that cabinet formation talks have collapsed. With the government formation process stuck squarely in the mud,...
Tellimer Research Patrick
Patrick Curran @ Tellimer Research 23 March 2021
Lebanon: Cabinet formation process collapses; no hope in sight
Lebanon: Cabinet formation process collapses; no hope in sight

Nigeria devalues official exchange rate, but impact will be limited

Finance Minister Zainab Ahmed said during a briefing in Abuja today that Nigeria will adopt a flexible exchange rate for official transactions and has adopted the I&E exchange rate as its official exchange rate, saying that, “Within the government an...
Tellimer Research Patrick
Patrick Curran @ Tellimer Research 22 March 2021
Nigeria devalues official exchange rate, but impact will be limited
Nigeria devalues official exchange rate, but impact will be limited

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