Patrick Curran

Tellimer Research

Senior Economist @ Tellimer Research

Patrick focuses on emerging market macro/sovereign research. Prior to joining Tellimer, he worked at Eaton Vance in Boston conducting sovereign fixed income analysis and spent time at the South African Reserve Bank in Pretoria. He holds an MA in International Economics at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in Washington and is a CFA charterholder.

Patrick Curran
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Latest articles from Patrick Curran

South Africa resists temptation to cut rates

Today, theSARB’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC)opted to hold rates at 3.5%, with three members voting to hold versus two who preferred a 25bps cut (the same split as the last meeting on 19 November). The government has initiated another "Level 3" lo...
Tellimer Research Patrick Curran
Patrick Curran @ Tellimer Research 21 January 2021
South African Reserve Bank resists temptation to cut
South African Reserve Bank resists temptation to cut

Turkey central bank opts to wait and see

Today the CBRT’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) opted to hold its one-week repo rate at 17%, in line with Bloomberg consensus. After such aggressive action at the last two MPC meetings (see here and here), we think the reaction is appropriate. Turke...
Tellimer Research Patrick Curran
Patrick Curran @ Tellimer Research 21 January 2021
Turkey central bank opts to wait and see
Turkey central bank opts to wait and see

Nigeria in 2021: Navigating murky waters

Nigeria’s economy, like the rest of the world, has had to struggle through the impact of COVID 19. At the centre of Nigeria’s economic challenges is FX. While investors’ outstanding backlogs have dropped from US$2bn in August to US$600-800mn in Decem...
Tellimer Research Janet Ogunkoya
Janet Ogunkoya @ Tellimer Research 21 January 2021
Nigeria in 2021: Navigating murky waters
Nigeria in 2021: Navigating murky waters

Debt sustainability index: Countries at the highest risk of debt distress

Following the release of our external liquidity scorecard last week, we have developed a debt sustainability index to provide a top-down look at which emerging and frontier markets are at the greatest risk of default. With 27 variables, we have divid...
Tellimer Research Patrick Curran
Patrick Curran @ Tellimer Research 20 January 2021
Debt sustainability index: Countries at the highest risk of debt distress
Debt sustainability index: Countries at the highest risk of debt distress

African Continental Free Trade Area is a positive step but no panacea

On the first day of 2021, the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) came into effect after having been delayed from its mid-2020 implementation deadline due to Covid. The UN Economic Commission for Africa estimates that AfCFTA has the potentia...
Tellimer Research Patrick Curran
Patrick Curran @ Tellimer Research 13 January 2021
African Continental Free Trade Area is a positive step but no panacea
African Continental Free Trade Area is a positive step but no panacea

External liquidity scorecard: An early warning system for external distress

The initial shock of the Covid-19 pandemic has faded, but the recovery will be slow as many countries face second and third waves before the vaccine is rolled out in scale. Moreover, a simple scatter plot shows that there is a positive relationship b...
Tellimer Research Patrick Curran
Patrick Curran @ Tellimer Research 11 January 2021
External liquidity scorecard: An early warning system for external distress
External liquidity scorecard: An early warning system for external distress

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