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Patrick Curran
Senior Economist @ Tellimer Research
Patrick focuses on emerging market macro/sovereign research. Prior to joining Tellimer, he worked at Eaton Vance in Boston conducting sovereign fixed income analysis and spent time at the South African Reserve Bank in Pretoria. He holds an MA in International Economics at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in Washington and is a CFA charterholder.
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Latest from Patrick Curran
South Africa: Downgrade ZAR to Hold with rate hike balanced by rising risks
SARB hiked rates by 75bps yesterday in line with expectations, preserving a positive real rate differential with the US. Growth and inflation forecasts broadly unchanged but current account forecast is notably worse; further hikes likely. Worsening e...
Patrick Curran @ Tellimer Research 23 September 2022
Egypt: Policy pause provides few clues for the pound
The CBE held its deposit rate at 11.25% yesterday versus expectations for a 50bps hike, risking falling behind the curve. No clarity provided on FX policy amid growing deval speculation. Tighter policy would lay groundwork for orderly deval. Required...
Patrick Curran @ Tellimer Research 23 September 2022
Turkey: Another reckless rate cut
CBRT cut its policy rate by 100bps to 12% against expectations for an unchanged stance, bringing the real rate to -68%. Limited market reaction as underlying policy stance is now driven by unorthodox 'liraisation' and credit policies. Policy reversal...
Patrick Curran @ Tellimer Research 23 September 2022
Risk and reward: the investment case for Pakistan
We hosted a webinar yesterday with IMS in Karachi on the macroeconomic and investment outlook for Pakistan. The path to avoid default has narrowed but the risk is already priced in, with eurobonds trading below recovery value. Likewise, equity valuat...
Patrick Curran @ Tellimer Research 22 September 2022
Pakistan floods: Evaluating the impact
Damage from floods could reach as high as US$30-40bn (8-11% of GDP) and may cause economy to contract in FY 22/23. Floods will create an external funding gap, necessitating fresh support from external creditors to avoid a BOP crisis. Path to avoid de...
Patrick Curran @ Tellimer Research 21 September 2022
Repricing of Fed hikes reduces risk of disorderly adjustment
Markets expect the fed funds rate to rise to 4.25% by end-22 from 3.3% at end-June and 0.8% at the beginning of the year. Market pricing is better aligned with forward guidance and economic reality, reducing the risk of disorderly adjustment. EMs wil...
Patrick Curran @ Tellimer Research 15 September 2022
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