Patrick Curran

Tellimer Research

Senior Economist @ Tellimer Research

Patrick focuses on emerging market macro/sovereign research. Prior to joining Tellimer, he worked at Eaton Vance in Boston conducting sovereign fixed income analysis and spent time at the South African Reserve Bank in Pretoria. He holds an MA in International Economics at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in Washington and is a CFA charterholder.

Patrick Curran
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Latest articles from Patrick Curran

EM central banks still ahead of the curve but vulnerable as Fed liftoff nears

With inflation continuing to rise in both DM and EM, the word “transitory” has been thoroughly abandoned in the inflation debate. However, policy hikes were more than offset by rising inflation, which increased to 7.1% at the end of the year across o...
Tellimer Research Patrick
Patrick Curran @ Tellimer Research 18 January 2022
EM central banks still ahead of the curve but vulnerable as Fed liftoff nears
EM central banks still ahead of the curve but vulnerable as Fed liftoff nears

Sri Lanka set to pay eurobond next week but default inevitable from mid-2022

The market seems confident that the US$500mn eurobond will be paid when it matures on 18 January, with the government assuring investors that the necessary funds have already been allocated and bond prices on the SRILAN 5 ¾ 01/18/2022s rising from be...
Tellimer Research Patrick
Patrick Curran @ Tellimer Research 13 January 2022
Sri Lanka set to pay eurobond next week but default inevitable from mid-2022
Sri Lanka set to pay eurobond next week but default inevitable from mid-2022

15 risks for 2022

We published our outlook for the year ahead recently. The bigger issue for EM assets, however, is likely to be the impact of rising inflation and the associated monetary policy tightening across the globe (which we have discussed at length here). We ...
Tellimer Research Patrick
Patrick Curran @ Tellimer Research 31 December 2021
15 risks for 2022
15 risks for 2022

Sovereign defaults and distress in 2021

There have only been two sovereign defaults this year, if we include consent solicitations to defer payments, whereas there have been no hard payment defaults yet, and those two (Belize – which has now resolved its default through a cash tender offer...
Tellimer Research Stuart
Stuart Culverhouse @ Tellimer Research 30 December 2021
Sovereign defaults and distress in 2021
Sovereign defaults and distress in 2021
Flash Report / Turkey

Turkish lira reversal and reserve depletion in four charts

The volatile lira rally continues, with the TRY now up by c45% from last Friday's low at the time of writing (though it is still down c34% ytd) and 1-month implied USD/TRY volatility rising to an all-time high of 81.9% (versus a previous high of 61.5...
Tellimer Research Patrick
Patrick Curran @ Tellimer Research 23 December 2021
Turkish lira reversal and reserve depletion in four charts
Turkish lira reversal and reserve depletion in four charts

Sovereign bonds in 2021: Winners and losers

As part of our traditional end-of-year review, we have identified the best- and worst-performing emerging markets sovereign dollar bonds over 2021. The best and worst performers this year have generally been among special situations and distress case...
Tellimer Research Stuart
Stuart Culverhouse @ Tellimer Research 23 December 2021
Sovereign bonds in 2021: Winners and losers
Sovereign bonds in 2021: Winners and losers

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