Patrick Curran

Tellimer Research

Senior Economist @ Tellimer Research

Patrick focuses on emerging market macro/sovereign research. Prior to joining Tellimer, he worked at Eaton Vance in Boston conducting sovereign fixed income analysis and spent time at the South African Reserve Bank in Pretoria. He holds an MA in International Economics at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in Washington and is a CFA charterholder.

Patrick Curran
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Latest from Patrick Curran

Nigeria: Upgrade to Buy after excessive sell-off

Nigerian bonds have sold off sharply this year, with the spread on the Bloomberg EM Sovereign Nigeria Index rising by 327bps ytd through 17 June versus a 105bps rise in the Aggregate Index. However, chronic mismanagement of Nigeria’s exchange rate re...
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Patrick Curran @ Tellimer Research 21 June 2022
Nigeria: Upgrade to Buy after excessive sell-off
Nigeria: Upgrade to Buy after excessive sell-off

EM credit sell-off unlocks pockets of value, but more pain could be in store

It has been a difficult month for markets with global stocks and bonds plummeting in tandem – the S&P 500 is down 11.1% and the 10-year US bond yields up 38bps in the month through 17 June. However, weaker fundamentals post-Covid (with higher debt bu...
Tellimer Research Patrick
Patrick Curran @ Tellimer Research 20 June 2022
EM credit sell-off unlocks pockets of value, but more pain could be in store
EM credit sell-off unlocks pockets of value, but more pain could be in store

Tunisia: Upgrade to Hold with bonds near recovery value

Bonds have now fallen below our target price and base case recovery value of cUS$65 calculated in December. Pakistan’s debt is projected to decline from just over 70% of GDP to less than 60% over the next five years and is projected to stabilise even...
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Patrick Curran @ Tellimer Research 14 June 2022
Tunisia: Upgrade to Hold with bonds near recovery value
Tunisia: Upgrade to Hold with bonds near recovery value

Kenya: Debt restructuring and debt ceiling comments spark concern

Kenyan eurobonds have sold off this week on 1) headlines that the debt ceiling has been revised from a legal limit of KES9tn to KES10tn and 2) comments from presidential aspirant Raila Odinga that he will aggressively pursue debt relief negotiations ...
Tellimer Research Patrick
Patrick Curran @ Tellimer Research 8 June 2022
Kenya: Debt restructuring and debt ceiling comments spark concern
Kenya: Debt restructuring and debt ceiling comments spark concern

Turkey’s inflation and balance of payments crisis in charts

President Erdogan and the CBRT have maintained their aversion to rate hikes even as Turkey’s inflation and balance of payments (BOP) dynamics continue to worsen, setting the lira up for continued weakness as tight global financial conditions are exac...
Tellimer Research Patrick
Patrick Curran @ Tellimer Research 7 June 2022
Turkey’s inflation and balance of payments crisis in charts
Turkey’s inflation and balance of payments crisis in charts

Pakistan: DSA and restructuring analysis shows bonds are near recovery value

Pakistan eurobonds have recovered over the past week amid a broader EM rally, the government’s decision to hike fuel prices by 20% on Friday, and news that the government would soon agree to a power tariff hike of up to 45% in July. Even in the combi...
Tellimer Research Patrick
Patrick Curran @ Tellimer Research 2 June 2022
Pakistan: DSA and restructuring analysis shows bonds are near recovery value
Pakistan: DSA and restructuring analysis shows bonds are near recovery value

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