Natalia Orlova

Alfa

Chief Economist @ Alfa

Natalia joined Alfa-Bank in 1998 and was appointed Chief Economist in 2001. Before joining Alfa, Natalia was an analyst at the Russian Opportunity Fund, a French hedge fund focusing on Russian and Ukrainian securities. She is a member of the CBR’s Advisory Board, which deals with monetary policy. In 2010, she was awarded a professor’s degree from the Higher School of Economics State University. 

Natalia Orlova
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Latest articles from Natalia Orlova
Macro Analysis / Russia

Russia: Consumers did well in 10M 20 despite lockdown challenges

In October, retail trade was down just 2.4% y/y, unemployment stood at 6.3%, retail loan growth accelerated to 14.7% y/y. Budget policy started to tighten in October with the end of tax holidays, which added pressure to the corporate segment. Acceler...
Alfa Natalia Orlova
Natalia Orlova @ Alfa 23 November 2020
Macro Analysis / Russia

Russia central bank mulling rate cut, but prepared for further pause

CBR stayed on hold at 4.25%, but the tone of the release is slightly more hawkish: The CBR kept its key policy rate unchanged at 4.25% today, in line with the expectations of 33 analysts out of 40 polled by Bloomberg. The headline paragraph of the re...
Alfa Natalia Orlova
Natalia Orlova @ Alfa 23 October 2020
Macro Analysis / Russia

Russia 9M 20 macro stats: Sliding deeper instead of rebounding

The weakness in retail and production patterns, which disappointed in August, intensified in September, manifesting in a 3.0% y/y contraction in retail trade and a 5.0% y/y contraction in industrial production. As the CBR has limited options to cut t...
Alfa Natalia Orlova
Natalia Orlova @ Alfa 21 October 2020
Macro Analysis / Russia

Russia: Low import of services main support factor for current account surplus

The low import of services, still down 52%, or by $15 bn in y/y terms, was the main support factor behind Russia’s current account surplus of $2.5 bn in 3Q20. Despite this representing an $8 bn contraction from the 3Q19 current account surplus ($10.7...
Alfa Natalia Orlova
Natalia Orlova @ Alfa 13 October 2020
Macro Analysis / Russia

Russia 2Q20 GDP shows upside surprise for investments and exports

Russia’s 2Q20 GDP contraction not as deep as 2Q09: We now have details of the 2Q20 consumption and investment performance, which enables us to compare this crisis at the peak of the economic contraction with the two previous crises, one of 2009 and t...
Alfa Natalia Orlova
Natalia Orlova @ Alfa 7 October 2020
Russia 2Q20 GDP breakdown – Investments and exports surprise on the upside
Russia 2Q20 GDP breakdown – Investments and exports surprise on the upside
Macro Analysis / Russia

Russian ruble — Geopolitical risk premium in focus

This deterioration started at the beginning of August with the disputed presidential election in Belarus, which triggered fears of Russian interference and possible sanctions in response from Western countries. Geopolitical premium – how high could i...
Alfa Natalia Orlova
Natalia Orlova @ Alfa 29 September 2020

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