Natalia Orlova

Alfa

Chief Economist @ Alfa

Natalia joined Alfa-Bank in 1998 and was appointed Chief Economist in 2001. Before joining Alfa, Natalia was an analyst at the Russian Opportunity Fund, a French hedge fund focusing on Russian and Ukrainian securities. She is a member of the CBR’s Advisory Board, which deals with monetary policy. In 2010, she was awarded a professor’s degree from the Higher School of Economics State University. 

Natalia Orlova
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Latest articles from Natalia Orlova

Russia’s monetary policy case – hawkish and surprising

The CBR announced the end of its policy rate cut cycle and indicated it will now focus on returning the key policy rate, currently at 4.25%, back to its neutral level, i.e. a 5-6% nominal range. This decision could be justified (1) by the recent acce...
Alfa Natalia Orlova
Natalia Orlova @ Alfa 20 February 2021
Russia’s monetary policy case – Controversial CBR tightening decision in 2021
Russia’s monetary policy case – Controversial CBR tightening decision in 2021

Russia central bank keeps rate unchanged, but communique very hawkish

CBR stays on hold at 4.25%, but communique very hawkish: The key policy rate was kept on hold by the central bank in line with the market consensus – in a Bloomberg poll all analysts expected the CBR to pause today. Thirdly, the spike in inflation to...
Alfa Natalia Orlova
Natalia Orlova @ Alfa 12 February 2021
Russia central bank keeps rate unchanged, but communique very hawkish
Russia central bank keeps rate unchanged, but communique very hawkish

Russia balance of payments: Chances of a stronger ruble look poorer than before

Russia’s 2020 BoP structure gives little reason to expect a stronger ruble this year. Second, it reflects that import substitution did not play any role in the economic adjustment of 2020 – the share of imported goods in Russian GDP has probably incr...
Alfa Natalia Orlova
Natalia Orlova @ Alfa 1 February 2021

Russia: Downside resistance, but lacks dynamism in recovery

Retail trade down 4.1% y/y in 2020, posting weakness in November-December: Rosstat reported retail trade down by 4.1% y/y in 2020, reflecting some deterioration in consumption patterns in November 2020 to a -3.1% y/y contraction and in December to a...
Alfa Natalia Orlova
Natalia Orlova @ Alfa 29 January 2021

Russian ruble exchange rate: Cautious view on Q1 21

Recent ruble appreciated driven by oil price recovery, but persisting sanction risk premium is a negative sign: The ruble was under strong pressure in August-October 2020 as the geopolitical risk-premium was on the rise ahead of US elections. At the...
Alfa Natalia Orlova
Natalia Orlova @ Alfa 21 December 2020
Alfa Macro Insights: Russian ruble exchange rate – Cautious view on 1Q 21
Alfa Macro Insights: Russian ruble exchange rate – Cautious view on 1Q 21

Russia central bank keeps rate on hold; hawkish wording

CBR stayed on hold at 4.25%, but continues to tighten the wording of the release: The CBR kept its key policy rate unchanged at 4.25% today in line with the market consensus. Annual food price inflation has thus jumped to 5.8% y/y. The tighter wordin...
Alfa Natalia Orlova
Natalia Orlova @ Alfa 18 December 2020
Russia central bank: Hawkish wording, but 2021 inflation forecast remains biased
Russia central bank: Hawkish wording, but 2021 inflation forecast remains biased

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Natalia Orlova
Russia
Europe
Fixed Income - Sovereign
Macro-strategy
Europe/CIS
Equity
Macro
2020
CBR
First
Second
2021
Rosstat

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