Natalia Orlova


Chief Economist @ Alfa

Natalia joined Alfa-Bank in 1998 and was appointed Chief Economist in 2001. Before joining Alfa, Natalia was an analyst at the Russian Opportunity Fund, a French hedge fund focusing on Russian and Ukrainian securities. She is a member of the CBR’s Advisory Board, which deals with monetary policy. In 2010, she was awarded a professor’s degree from the Higher School of Economics State University. 

Natalia Orlova
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Latest articles from Natalia Orlova

Russian Macro Stats 9M21: Relief in inflation picture likely to be delayed

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Natalia Orlova @ Alfa 23 November 2021

Russia: CBR rate policy – Chasing inflation

The CBR surprised the market with a substantial 75 bp rate increase, holding the prospect of a further rate hike: Despite the market consensus focusing on a 50 bp rate hike scenario, the CBR surprised with a very hawkish move, raising its key rate to...
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Natalia Orlova @ Alfa 22 October 2021

Russia: Economy Ministry compels the CBR to make a 50bps rate hike in October

Sharp inflation spike to 7.4% y/y in September puts at risk the CBR’s intention to shift to a smaller 25bps rate step in its policy action: The 10 September rate increase, the CBR release, and the CBR governor’s wording at the press-conference were t...
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Natalia Orlova @ Alfa 13 October 2021

Macro Insights: Russian Macro Stats 8M21: Inflationary risks constrain growth

Recent Russian macro statistics were disappointing for the growth story. First, Russia’s labor market seems to constrain growth – with an unemployment rate of 4.4% reported for August, Russia’s GDP growth has decelerated to 3.7% y/y, more than expect...
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Natalia Orlova @ Alfa 4 October 2021

Russian Budget Efforts to tighten policy postponed to 2022

The key takeaway from the recently unveiled budget parameters for 2021 and 2022 is that this year the Russian cabinet has postponed its initial plan to tighten policy. The tight promise, however, is now reiterated for 2022, with the idea to drop the ...
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Natalia Orlova @ Alfa 1 October 2021

Russia Macro Insights: Rate policy – Cautious release, hawkish press conference

The CBR raised its key policy rate by 25bp to 6.75%, in line with our expectation: The CBR delivered a 25bp rate increase to 6.75%, which came in line with our expectation but against the consensus forecast of a 50 bp rate hike. The release says “the...
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Natalia Orlova @ Alfa 13 September 2021

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Natalia Orlova
Fixed Income - Sovereign
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