Juan Carlos Alderete Macal

Banorte

Director of Economic Research @ Banorte

Juan Carlos Alderete has 15 years of experience in the financial sector and is Head of Economic Research, responsible for modeling the main economic variables and outlook for Mexico and major economies. He was previously Chief FX Strategist at the same institution and has experience in the analysis of the equity, debt, and real estate markets. He was recognized with the Refinitiv StarMine Award as the best forecaster for the Mexican economy in 2019. Alderete holds a Bachelor’s Degree in Economics from ITAM, where he graduated magna cum laude, and is a CFA Charterholder since 2014. He has been a panelist in specialized industry forums and his opinions and research are frequently quoted in domestic and foreign specialized news agencies and sites, among others.

Juan Carlos Alderete Macal
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Latest articles from Juan Carlos Alderete Macal
Macro Analysis / Mexico

Mexico's record-high trade surplus signals domestic weakness

October’s trade balance posted a US$6,223.8mn surplus, a new historical high and surpassing all expectations. In the details, exports (4.8% m/m) gained additional momentum, while imports (1.3%) decelerated marginally. Given sizable differences betwee...
Banorte Juan Carlos Alderete Macal
Juan Carlos Alderete Macal @ Banorte 27 November 2020
Mexico's record-high trade surplus signals domestic weakness
Mexico's record-high trade surplus signals domestic weakness
Macro Analysis / Mexico

Mexico: 3Q20 GDP – Broadly unchanged, highlighting more dynamism in services

Gross Domestic Product (3Q20 F, nsa): -8.6% y/y; Banorte: -8.7%; consensus: -8.6%; preliminary: -8.6%. We highlight the +20bps revision to services to 8.8% q/q, helped strongly by the reopening, among other factors. We maintain our -9.0% y/y estimate...
Banorte Gabriel Casillas Olvera
Gabriel Casillas Olvera @ Banorte 26 November 2020
Macro Analysis / Mexico

Mexico's central bank raises its forecasts despite prevailing uncertainty

Banxico published today its 3Q20 Quarterly Report (QR). As anticipated in the last statement, the monetary authority revised its inflation forecasts mostly to the upside. Hence, there is no convergence to 3% in headline inflation during the forecast...
Banorte Gabriel Casillas Olvera
Gabriel Casillas Olvera @ Banorte 26 November 2020
Macro Analysis / Mexico

Mexico: Stronger than expected retail sales in September as mobility kept rising

Retail sales stood at -7.1% a/a, better than expectations and aided by an improvement in epidemiological conditions. In monthly terms they advanced 2.7%, with increases in sectors related to higher mobility, such as clothing and leisure. Going forwar...
Banorte Juan Carlos Alderete Macal
Juan Carlos Alderete Macal @ Banorte 25 November 2020
Macro Analysis / Mexico

Mexico: Jobless rate fell again in October despite worse Covid dynamics

Unemployment rate (October; nsa): 4.70%; Banorte: 5.03%; consensus: 5.00%; previous: 5.09%. In our view, today’s report was very positive, especially considering the deterioration in epidemiological conditions. We expect job gains to continue, albeit...
Banorte Juan Carlos Alderete Macal
Juan Carlos Alderete Macal @ Banorte 24 November 2020
Macro Analysis / Mexico

Mexico inflation back within Banxico’s variability range

Inflation surprised to the downside at 0.04% 2w/2w, driven by discounts from Mexico’s Black Friday, gasoline and fruits. With this, the headline index stood at 3.43% y/y, below the 4.09% in October and back within Banxico’s target range. Attention wi...
Banorte Alejandro Padilla Santana
Alejandro Padilla Santana @ Banorte 24 November 2020

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Juan Carlos Alderete Macal
Francisco Jose Flores Serrano
Mexico
LatAm
Macro
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Macro-strategy
Fixed Income - Sovereign
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Alejandro Padilla Santana
May
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2020

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