Jay Pelosky

TPW Advisory

TPW Founder & Global Strategist @ TPW Advisory

Jay Pelosky is a global strategist with 30+years of multi-asset investment experience in c50 countries. He was a top II ranked strategist at Morgan Stanley in Global Asset Allocation, Global Equity and Global Emerging Markets. Forward-looking and thematic, Jay is the Founder and Principal at TPW Advisory which leverages Jay's proprietary work on the Tri Polar World ( TPW) and Global Risk Nexus (GRN) to generate original, differentiated and actionable investment advice for individual & institutional investors (www.pelosky.com).

Jay Pelosky
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Latest from Jay Pelosky

Stocks & Bonds - Only One Will Be Right

It's different this time - thus its no surprise investors are confused. Bonds seem all in on recession/rate cuts. Stocks sighting in on the January trifecta led by non US equity - equity that is now Overbought in the near term. Fintwit says don't buy...
TPW Advisory Jay
Jay Pelosky @ TPW Advisory 27 January 2023

It Isn't Different This Time

In a spin off the old Wall St adage we argue that the 5 most dangerous words on Wall St are It Isn't Different This Time. Of course its different: we are exiting a 100 yr global pandemic while Europe fights & China unlocks a billion people. A decade....
TPW Advisory Jay
Jay Pelosky @ TPW Advisory 20 January 2023

Welcome Mr. Bunny

Come for the Monty Python clip - stay for the macro insights. Our 2023 view is quite simple & straightforward: less Fed. Less Fed = less volatility & weak USD which together sets the stage for a multi year trend reversal away from US equity. We updat...
TPW Advisory Jay
Jay Pelosky @ TPW Advisory 13 January 2023

Focus Forward

2022 is in the rearview mirror - focus forward on how last yr's headwinds are shifting to this yr's tailwinds. Our 3 keys: pace of US inflation, path of EU energy prices and China's move off Zero Covid are all accelerating in 2023. We expect a flatti...
TPW Advisory Jay
Jay Pelosky @ TPW Advisory 6 January 2023

The Old Wall St Two Step

Will the Wall St two step take the SPY down two years in a row? Will history be a better guide in 2023 than in 2022? The two step is not limited to the US - the music's pace has picked up in Asia, from China's Zero Covid to Japan's YCC. The key globa...
TPW Advisory Jay
Jay Pelosky @ TPW Advisory 23 December 2022

Watch What CB's Do, Not What They Say

Fed & ECB downshift hikes, step up rhetoric - pay attention to what CB's do - not what they say. 2H 2022 US inflation running at 2.4% annualized while Atlanta Fed Q4 GDP nowcast at 3%, seems like fabled soft landing. Dot plots are dangerous - disrega...
TPW Advisory Jay
Jay Pelosky @ TPW Advisory 16 December 2022

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