Anna Kiyutsevskaya

August retail trade disappointed with a 2.7% y/y contraction: We had expected the closure of international borders would be favorable for a faster recovery in local consumption, however our expectation of a 0.1% y/y increase in retail trade for Augus...

CBR stayed on hold at 4.25%: The CBR kept its key policy rate unchanged at 4.25% today, delivering on the market’s expectations. A pause on 23 October is our base scenario: There are two certainties which could be extracted from today’s release. We t...

Rosstat’s revised Russia’s 2Q20 GDP from -8.5% y/y to just an 8.0% y/y contraction, but the sectoral breakdown of 2Q20 offers some surprises. Our third observation is that a 12.8% y/y decline in commodity extraction in 2Q20 was more than compensated...

CBR cuts the key rate by 25bps in line with our expectation: Despite the market consensus expecting a 50bps rate cut, the CBR came with a 25bp reduction in line with our expectation. We take all these factors as a signal in favor of a continuing poli...

Market consensus now favours a 50bp policy rate cut on Friday: The market consensus now expects a 50bp CBR policy rate cut on 24 July, with 65% of polled analysts sharing this view. Two comments from this interview could be interpreted in favor of a...

The consumer side of the Russian macro came strong in June with only a 7.7% y/y decline in retail trade, unemployment of just 6.2% and a 1.0% m/m increase in retail loans. Despite industrial output still showing a deep contraction, we consider the wo...